Stagflation: It’s Not What It Seems July 12, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Energy, Uncategorized.Tags: oil prices, stagflation, us economy
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I just want to clear up some misconceptions I keep hearing about rising prices in concert with a stagnant economy. Typically people think of stagflation as a stagnant economy with inflationary pressures that are causing prices to rise across the board. In reality, what we are experiencing now is distinctly different in that prices are rising independently of inflation, which essentially is the true definition of stagflation.
In reality, economies experience inflation as a product of uncontrolled growth and investment. This is because when an individual or corporation stores money in a bank the bank can then loan out typically 90 to 95 percent of that money to other people . This causes the supply of money to rise and the currency becomes devalued, which causes all prices to rise. Essentially, inflation means rising prices but rising prices doesn’t necessarily mean inflation. Inflation is also typically harder on the people with lower incomes who are engaging in a much lower degree of investment.
Obviously, what is happening now is not uncontrolled investment hurting the value of our currency. Rather, the high price of energy, and to some degree the lame housing market, is simultaneously slowing the economy and causing prices to rise. To me it seems that this is a new kind of economic situation, that in our society could only be the product of an energy shortage. We saw this for the first time with the oil embargo in the seventies and we’re seeing it again with the current increase in the price of oil.
While stagflation probably isn’t as devastating, for the lower half of income earners, as run-away inflation might be. Stagflation shows how closely our quality of life is tied directly or indirectly to the availability of energy resources.
John McCain Needs A VP Now June 24, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Uncategorized.Tags: Barack Obama, Charlie Crist, Electoral Map, John McCain, Kay Baily-Hutchinson
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After a two month break iapprovedthismessage is back for some more exciting political and social commentary, and it couldn’t be at a more ground-breaking time politically. Right now we’re looking at an electoral map that John Kerry couldn’t have imagined four years ago. Here is fivethirtyeight’s current projection.
With Obama seriously contesting in states like North Carolina and potentially winning in places like Indiana, Missouri and Virginia it’s getting to be panic time for the McCain campaign. McCain needs to make a splash somehow to counteract the Obama momentum that he continues to carry from the end of the primary campaign. I think the best way to do this is to pick a VP now and get him (or her) out on the campaign trail as quickly as possible.
I say her because I know there is a school of thought that thinks McCain would benefit significantly from picking a woman. The problem is, there aren’t a whole lot of particularly viable candidates, outside of Condi Rice (who has said she wouldn’t do it), that McCain could pick that wouldn’t cause his selection to look like some kind of gender gimmick. Retiring Texas Senator Kay Baily-Hutchinson could be a possible option but she doesn’t have a whole lot of name-recognition and she has that grandmother-look to her that wouldn’t help McCain either.
I think it seems the obvious pick at this point is Florida Governor Charlie Crist. Crist would, of course, secure Florida’s 27 votes but would also be a defensive pick for McCain. However, he doesn’t have any other particularly good options at this point. But having an energetic and moderate Crist on the campaign trail would be very beneficial to McCain, at least in the short run.
Mark Warner Ready For Jim Gilmore May 31, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Uncategorized.Tags: 2008 US Senate Elections, Jim Gilmore, Mark Warner, Republican Party, Virginia Politics
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Today Virginia Republicans nominated former Governor Jim Gilmore to take on Mark Warner in the race to fill John Warner’s Senate seat. Gilmore defeated Delegate Bob Marshall 5222-5156, which amounts to 50.2 to 49.7 percent. Let the coronation begin.
DNC Rules Committee: Will Faulty Logic Fix Faulty Logic? May 31, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Uncategorized.Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, Hillary Clinton, The Democratic Party, 2008 Democratic Primaries, DNC Rules Committee
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There aren’t any states right now feeling dumber than Florida and Michigan. Instead of abiding by the predetermined primary schedule they decided to leap-frog Super Tuesday and have their primaries in January in an attempt to gain some additional influence in the process. However, due to their violation of the sanctioned schedule, both states were stripped of their delegates to the convention and in retrospect they could have actually gained more influence by moving their primaries a few months backward as opposed to a few weeks earlier.
Hillary Clinton won both primaries by a large margin, including Michigan in which only her name was on the ballot. At the time it was generally percieved that the results were electorally meaningless beyond any PR bump that might occur. Now, while trailing in convention delegates, Hillary Clinton, for several months, has argued to seat all Florida and Michigan delegates despite agreeing in the Fall to not campaign in either state. See below Clinton supporters protesting outside today’s rules committee meeting.
Update: Is Hillary More Electable? May 29, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Uncategorized.Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain
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Yesterday I wrote about Hillary’s recent surge in polling against John McCain. I said this was likely due to Republicans picking up their attacks on Obama as he became the front runner, which drove up the negatives for both Obama and McCain while leaving Hillary untouched. Now this morning the guys at fivethirtyeight have published a study of press release attacks by all three campaigns and both national committees during the last nine months. This chart really couldn’t be more explicit in showing how much the national committees have attacked both McCain and Obama in the last four months while leaving Hillary virtually untouched.
It’s interesting to see how little, at least through press releases, Obama has attacked both Hillary and McCain over the course of the campaign. This is likely due to the fact that he was never really behind electorally and also his calls for a new kind of politics makes it difficult for his campaign to attack blatantly through press releases. Another thing to point out is that Clinton has significantly toned down her attacks against Obama in May and actually attacked McCain more in this month than Obama.
Is Hillary Really More Electable? May 28, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Uncategorized.Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, electoral college, Hillary Clinton
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That’s at least her strongest and most articulated argument at this point. See this story from CNN. If by more electable she means currently polling ahead of John McCain she is certainly right. Most polls have Senator Clinton ahead in the Kerry states as well as Florida, Ohio and Arkansas. Fivethirtyeight.com reflects this by producing a Clinton electoral victory about 62 percent of the time. The Clinton campaign has also issued a graphical memo that exhibits her advantage.
While this map takes some liberties with Kentucky and maybe New Hampshire I think it’s generally pretty accurate. But I should also point at that Hillary’s surge in the last month or so is likely due to Republicans picking up their attacks on Obama, which has driven up his negatives. If the situation were reversed it’s likely Obama would be doing better than Hillary against McCain, but at the same time a lot of Obama’s woes have been self-imposed.
Hillary’s Obama/McCain map (after the flip) shows Obama 46 points behind McCain but shows McCain winning in Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio in all of Which Obama is actually about even or slightly ahead. If Obama were to win two of these three he would surpass 270.
Prime Minister Question Time May 27, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Uncategorized.Tags: English Politics, Margaret Thatcher, Prime Minister Question Time, Tony Blair
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Fresh off my trip to Europe I want to point out one of the most distinct and entertaining differences between parliamentary and presidential democracies. In our system we typically question our president and elected officials through the media but in the UK they don’t mess around when it comes to telling the prime minister what they think. Often the “questioning” can digress to ad hominem and personal attacks American politicians typically wouldn’t think of making.
The rigors of this system also requires a combination of quick thinking and broad issue knowledge not typically found in American presidents. In the modern era I think it’s relatively safe to say that only Bill Clinton would have been particularly successful under this system. I don’t think even his most ardent supporters would argue that President Bush would succeed at prime minister question time and even the “great communicator” Ronald Reagan would probably struggle as well. How earlier presidents like Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon would have performed is debatable.
The first video shows a young Tony Blair Blair taking on John Major over his leadership of the conservative party. The second, after the flip, shows Margaret Thatcher at her best debating the idea of a single European currency.
Blog Maverick: “I Know I Would Make The Same Deal Again.” May 6, 2008
Posted by nedd_turrley in NBA.Tags: Dallas Mavericks, Devin Harris, Jason Kidd, Mark Cuban
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A few days after the Dallas Mavericks were ousted in the first round for two consecutive playoffs in a row, Mark Cuban wrote about the Mavs’ year in review on his blog. His post provides some fascinating insight into the making of the Jason Kidd-deal as well as the difficulty of making trades in the NBA.
The fact that professional sports teams are owned by billionaires clearly shows how money can provide people with a false sense of confidence. What I’m saying is that having a lot of money gives guys like Jerry Jones, Hank Steinbrenner, Al Davis, and Mark Cuban a reason to think that they are experts in whatever sport their respective team plays. Historically, the most championships are won by teams whose owners aren’t in the spotlight. Can anyone name the owner of the San Antonio Spurs? How about the Chicago Bulls of the ’90s? And do you really think the Kraft family has any influence at all on the Patriots’ trades, draft picks, and free agent signings? Although owners like Davis, Cuban, Steinbrenner, and Jones make their teams relevant through their willingness to spend, they often get in the way of those who actually earned their wealth through their knowledge of the game. It’s not coincidence that championship-worthy teams are run by owners who step aside for those who are more qualified to make the most important decisions. Just because Hank Steinbrenner is rich doesn’t mean that he knows more about baseball than Brian Cashman (i.e. Insisting that Joba Chamberlain should be a starter), and just because Mark Cuban earned biillions of dollars by creating complex computer software doesn’t make him an expert at assembling a professional basketball team. (i.e. Failing to re-sign Steve Nash in ‘04 and trading 25 year-old Devin Harris for 35 year-old Jason Kidd).
Jim Gilmore: Truly Fallacious May 1, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Virginia Politics.Tags: 2008 US Senate Elections, Jim Gilmore, Mark Warner, Virginia Politics
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Without getting into a discussion of the car tax and Jim Gilmore’s term as governor lets, just examine the logic of his statement about Warner and taxes. Gilmore essentially says that Warner successfully runs for office by saying he is going to do one thing, but then doing another once he is finally elected. This argument is a hypothetical syllogism represented as if p->q and consequently if ~q -> ~P. So in the second part Gilmore argues if Warner says he’s going to raise taxes, then he is probably going to raise taxes a lot. I guess this would be represented as p->~q or p-> even more p as pertaining to his first argument. Either way I say Jim Gilmore, you sir are an arguer of fallacious things and not fit to be in the United States Senate!
Also, it’s probably arguements like this that have caused Gilmore to be running just about 2000 percent behind Warner in cash on hand.
Ridin’ Dirty At Age Seven May 1, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Random.Tags: Gangster, Grand Theft Auto, Ridin' Dirty
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“And so then I had my friend come in and he smokes with cigarettes.”
I think a whole weekend without video games is still a little stiff for this kid.
Watch Scalia Get Pwn3d April 28, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Uncategorized.Tags: 8th Amendment, ACLU, Antonin Scalia, Bill of Rights, US Supreme Court
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Though it’s pretty clear that Nadine Strossen of the ACLU is a little over matched here, she does catch Scalia trying to essentially argue that America and society in general has not become more equal, fair, open, and free since the adoption of the Constitution. Sure Scalia can provide examples to the contrary, but its impossible to say that, in the aggregate, these principles have not grown over time.
I think this is clearly where the conservative argument for a static constitution falls flat and I wish Strossen had pushed Scalia a little harder on it. Scalia tried to mock civil libertarians (and dare I say mockery in argument is a sign of internal weakness) by saying that they believe the 8th Amendment to mean “to each his own” on cruel and unusual punishment. But what Strossen should have said is that the Bill of Rights is designed for judges to shape the law based on the prevailing societal norms of the time. No this doesn’t mean that the courts should reflect public opinion, far from it. Rather the courts should evaluate society in a historical context in order to evaluate, for instance, what exactly is cruel and unusual.
Sure this puts a lot of power in the hands of judges, but in light of the fact that societal norms have changed since the writing of the constitution, it’s difficult to identify a better way. If judges look at the law and at society in its context and decide that it’s OK for the state to put to death its own citizens in the form of capital punishment, I’m OK with that. I think that’s the wrong decision, but I think it was decided in the correct way.
I was also somewhat astounded by the fact that Scalia explained the ban on the death penalty in the German Constitution as the work of Nazi sympathizers. Maybe it was actually due the the fact that the state had just put to death millions people, many of whom were their own citizens, and they didn’t really think it would be appropriate to continue that practice, even in a limited respect.
2008 Mock Draft In Review April 27, 2008
Posted by nedd_turrley in Football.Tags: 2008 NFL Draft, NFL Draft
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Now that the 2008 NFL Draft is over, the 2008 Iapprovedthismessage Mock Draft is up for review. Click the “2008 NFL Draft” tab at the top of the screen to see how accurate our projections ended up being. In all, 12 out of 28 projections ended up being correct (We excluded the 3 teams who traded out of the first round).
