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Watch Scalia Get Pwn3d April 28, 2008

Posted by justingerman in Uncategorized.
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Though it’s pretty clear that Nadine Strossen of the ACLU is a little over matched here, she does catch Scalia trying to essentially argue that America and society in general has not become more equal, fair, open, and free since the adoption of the Constitution. Sure Scalia can provide examples to the contrary, but its impossible to say that, in the aggregate, these principles have not grown over time.

I think this is clearly where the conservative argument for a static constitution falls flat and I wish Strossen had pushed Scalia a little harder on it. Scalia tried to mock civil libertarians (and dare I say mockery in argument is a sign of internal weakness) by saying that they believe the 8th Amendment to mean “to each his own” on cruel and unusual punishment. But what Strossen should have said is that the Bill of Rights is designed for judges to shape the law based on the prevailing societal norms of the time. No this doesn’t mean that the courts should reflect public opinion, far from it. Rather the courts should evaluate society in a historical context in order to evaluate, for instance, what exactly is cruel and unusual.

Sure this puts a lot of power in the hands of judges, but in light of the fact that societal norms have changed since the writing of the constitution, it’s difficult to identify a better way. If judges look at the law and at society in its context and decide that it’s OK for the state to put to death its own citizens in the form of capital punishment, I’m OK with that. I think that’s the wrong decision, but I think it was decided in the correct way.

I was also somewhat astounded by the fact that Scalia explained the ban on the death penalty in the German Constitution as the work of Nazi sympathizers. Maybe it was actually due the the fact that the state had just put to death millions people, many of whom were their own citizens, and they didn’t really think it would be appropriate to continue that practice, even in a limited respect.

2008 Mock Draft In Review April 27, 2008

Posted by nedd_turrley in Football.
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Now that the 2008 NFL Draft is over, the 2008 Iapprovedthismessage Mock Draft is up for review. Click the “2008 NFL Draft” tab at the top of the screen to see how accurate our projections ended up being. In all, 12 out of 28 projections ended up being correct (We excluded the 3 teams who traded out of the first round).

Amusing Ourselves To Death April 27, 2008

Posted by justingerman in The Democratic Party, The Republican Party.
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I’ve been reading this book by Neil Postman, “Amusing Ourselves to Death,” which has pretty much changed the way I look at the way we communicate and see the world.

Writing in 1986, Postman identifies four different traditions that have dictated public discourse throughout history. These four are oral, written, typographic, which was introduced by the invention of the printing press, and telegraphic, which of course is exhibited by the telegraph, radio, television, etc. He argues that each type of tradition dictates the nature of societal discourse, essentially, each type of discourse is a metaphor for something greater than itself. For instance, an oral tradition puts an emphasis on parables and sayings in order to issue legal judgments, while a written tradition adjudicates through written law and precedents. (more…)

Iapprovedthismessage 2008 NFL Draft Preview (Picks 21-32) April 25, 2008

Posted by nedd_turrley in Football, Uncategorized.
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Since the NFL draft begins tomorrow, it’s time to speculate on how the first round will play out. The first 20 picks have already been revealed. Click the “NFL Draft 2008″ tab to see the accumulated picks.

The player that each team will most likely draft will be written in bold under each team’s name. The other players that each team will be thinking about drafting will be listed further down. Iapprovedthismessage’s selections will be noted as well.

(more…)

If Hillary Loses Indiana She Will Drop Out April 23, 2008

Posted by justingerman in 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain.
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I think it’s pretty clear, at this point, that Hillary is considering dropping out if she doesn’t win Indiana decisively.  Despite her strong finish, it looks like Hillary will only pick up 10 delegates in Pennsylvania, which is probably significantly lower than what her campaign considered to be the best possible result.  Thus, it is increasingly less-likely that she will have enough Super Delegates to hand her the nomination.  Compound this by the fact that there is really only two states remaining, Kentucky and West Virginia, that are sure wins, and the only other states she can win are Indiana, Oregon and maybe Puerto Rico.  But I think all three of these lean to Obama.

Hillary will drop out not because she wants to do the right thing for the party or for democracy, but simply because she is resilient, not suicidal.

If Hillary draws this race out even further, and Obama ends up losing to McCain, lots of Democrats will ( I think wrongly) blame Hillary for Obama’s loss, which will end her chance of ever being president.  On the other hand, if she graciously accepts defeat and strongly endorses Obama she will very likely be the default nominee against McCain in 2012, if Obama loses.  Also consider that McCain will likely be a very vulnurable incumbent in 2012 if he wins in ‘08.

I would actually say that right now, Hillary has a significantly better chance of being elected in 2012 than 2008.  Think of Richard Nixon in 1960 refusing to challenge the general election results despite feeling that he was cheated out of the electoral votes in both Illinois and Texas.

Iapprovedthismessage 2008 NFL Draft Preview (Picks 11-20) April 23, 2008

Posted by nedd_turrley in Football.
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Since the NFL draft is only a few days away, it’s time to speculate on how the first round will play out. The first ten picks were revealed last thursday and the final 11 picks will be revealed friday. Click the “NFL Draft 2008″ tab to see the accumulated picks.

The player that each team will most likely draft will be written in bold under each team’s name. The other players that each team will be thinking about drafting will be listed further down. Iapprovedthismessage’s selections will be noted as well.

(more…)

Pennsylvania Primary Preview April 21, 2008

Posted by justingerman in 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, The Democratic Party.
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So the big day is upon us and I think the only reaction I have is thank God. I am so tired of this primary campaign that I have kind of blocked out a lot of it the last couple weeks. I can’t really fault the campaigns or even the media for the trivial nature of the coverage, because there has never been a campaign like this in American history. Never before has a single campaign between two candidates been the main news story for literally months at a time.

For one, a primary between two candidates has never lasted this long. Additionally, there has never been a six week period without any voting like the one we just experienced. Put these two factors together and what results is a trivia based campaign simply because the candidates haven’t had anything new to say for months. Thus, the media can’t keep reporting on the same things so they emphasize the charge-counter charge nature of the campaigns.

Some might ask, “isn’t this essentially the same thing as a general presidential election?” I would say no simply because, in a presidential, there are two candidates that are the main story at the national level, but there are also hundreds of races across the country at all levels of government that also attract people’s attention. Also, the differences between a Democrat and a Republican are a lot more stark in policy terms than between Clinton and Obama. Not to mention a general election really only last 3 months, which forces the media to discuss policy a lot more than in the 15 month primary campaign that we’re seeing now.

While the good news is that the worst is likely over with the conclusion of the Pennsylvania Primary tomorrow, there looks to be little possibility that Obama will finish close enough to Hillary to force her out of the race. (more…)

Just The Strangest Maps I’ve Ever Seen April 21, 2008

Posted by justingerman in Uncategorized.
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I could probably waste my life away looking at this site. Strange Maps, as its called, basically has a ton of weird and creative maps that they collect from all over the internet. The first example shows the percent of blond individuals across Europe, while the second shows how plate tectonics will shape the world’s continents over the next 250 million years.

“It’s In My Soul, It’s What I Need” April 18, 2008

Posted by nedd_turrley in music.
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“The Killers” performing “Glamorous Indie Rock n’ Roll” live. You’d be hard-pressed to find a better live performance than this one.

Iapprovedthismessage 2008 NFL Draft Preview (Picks 1-10) April 17, 2008

Posted by nedd_turrley in Football, Uncategorized.
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5 comments

Since the NFL draft is only a week away, it’s time to speculate on how the first round will play out. The first ten picks will be revealed today with the following 21 picks revealed later. Click the “NFL Draft 2008″ tab to see the accumulated picks.

The player that each team will most likely draft will be written in bold under each team’s name. The other players that each team will be thinking about drafting will be listed further down. Iapprovedthismessage’s selections will be noted as well.

(more…)

2008 Senate Elections Expected Values April 16, 2008

Posted by justingerman in 2008 Election.
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Having already done an expected values calculation for the 2008 electoral college, it only made since to calculate the expected composition of the Senate following the November election.

To do this I gave each race a value between -1 and 1. A negative value represents the probability that the Democrats lose a particular seat, while a positive value is the probability that they gain the seat. A value of 0 means that the seat is “safe” in that there is a zero probability that it will change parties.

I list the probabilities for each election by the degree of competition that will categorize the race. My four categories are safe, leaning, marginal, and toss-up.

Using this method I got an expected value of 4.2 for the number of seats the Democrats will likely gain. Read on to see how I got this figure and if I think it’s an accurate representation of the election. (more…)

Barack Obama And Rural America April 14, 2008

Posted by justingerman in 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain.
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An unnamed, esteemed reader of iapprovedthismessage has asked me to comment on the controversy surrounding Barack Obama’s recent comments about rural Americans being bitter due to their down-and-out economic conditions. Here is the full quote.

“You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them,” Obama said. “And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”

Four things come to mind when I read this.

1. Hardly anyone will actually change their vote for Hillary, or John McCain for that matter, after hearing this quote. I think there is actually a large swath of people in these small towns who likely agree with Obama because this is the kind of thing they see everyday. The people who try to make political hay out of this aren’t going to vote for Obama anyway.

2. Obama wrote pretty much this exact thing several times in the Audacity of Hope and he also made statements along these lines in the debates at well without any kind of backlash. Additionally, Obama has been significantly more critical of the self-destructive nature of black-urban communities and blacks have been voting for Obama to about the tune of about 90 percent.

3. I think the timing of this statement, two weeks before a primary that could propel him to the White House, shows that Obama is probably the most authentic and wise politician since King Solomon told them to cut that baby in half. Anyone that doesn’t think this statement shows the legitimate nature of Obama as a different type of candidate is probably not paying attention. Sure you can disagree with him on policy but it’s hard to disagree with the fact that Obama is rewriting the rules of presidential campaigning.

4. Let’s just contrast Obama’s statement with Hillary hammerin’ back a couple shots like she just got off the line at the steel plant. What? That whiskey is Canadian!? SHAME ON YOU HILLARY!

Message Board Oddities: Volume III April 14, 2008

Posted by nedd_turrley in NBA.
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Today’s message board oddity includes two oddities and doesn’t come from an actual message board. However, the absurdity of the statements fully qualify as “message board oddities.” In a feature entitled “Roundtable: Who is the league’s 2007-08 MVP”, each of ESPN’s NBA writers submitted annotated ballots telling who should receive the NBA MVP and why. Most of the ballots presented logical arguments except for those of J.A. Adande and Jemele Hill. (more…)

The Office Season 5 April 10, 2008

Posted by justingerman in Random.
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“Jim, you can buy more stuff, but you can’t buy a new party.”

The Iraq War- Six Months At A Time April 10, 2008

Posted by justingerman in 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, John McCain, US Foreign Policy.
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I’ve never been a fan of moveon.org. I think, in lots of instances, they actually do more harm than good. Take the “General Betray Us” ad that they ran in the New York Times the day before Gen. Petraeus testified a Capitol Hill in September. The ad was as harmful to the Democrats as it was corny because, after the ad, they couldn’t ask Petraeus hard questions without appearing to be personally questioning his loyalty. This incident honestly made me think that Republicans were running Move-On.

However, Move-On has shown an incredible ability to raise huge sums of money and to mobilize really well at the grass-roots level. They’re also pretty good at making TV ads, like this one about McCain and Iraq.

I think Democrats should probably get away from talking about this “100-year war” comment because people are starting to figure out that’s not exactly what McCain meant and it sort of compromises Obama’s ability to claim a higher quality dialogue. But either way this ad from move-on is exactly the way the Obama team should go about exposing McCain and the Republicans’ rhetoric on Iraq.