Mark Warner Ready For Jim Gilmore May 31, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Uncategorized.Tags: 2008 US Senate Elections, Jim Gilmore, Mark Warner, Republican Party, Virginia Politics
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Today Virginia Republicans nominated former Governor Jim Gilmore to take on Mark Warner in the race to fill John Warner’s Senate seat. Gilmore defeated Delegate Bob Marshall 5222-5156, which amounts to 50.2 to 49.7 percent. Let the coronation begin.
DNC Rules Committee: Will Faulty Logic Fix Faulty Logic? May 31, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Uncategorized.Tags: 2008 Democratic Primaries, 2008 Presidential Election, DNC Rules Committee, Hillary Clinton, The Democratic Party
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There aren’t any states right now feeling dumber than Florida and Michigan. Instead of abiding by the predetermined primary schedule they decided to leap-frog Super Tuesday and have their primaries in January in an attempt to gain some additional influence in the process. However, due to their violation of the sanctioned schedule, both states were stripped of their delegates to the convention and in retrospect they could have actually gained more influence by moving their primaries a few months backward as opposed to a few weeks earlier.
Hillary Clinton won both primaries by a large margin, including Michigan in which only her name was on the ballot. At the time it was generally percieved that the results were electorally meaningless beyond any PR bump that might occur. Now, while trailing in convention delegates, Hillary Clinton, for several months, has argued to seat all Florida and Michigan delegates despite agreeing in the Fall to not campaign in either state. See below Clinton supporters protesting outside today’s rules committee meeting.
Update: Is Hillary More Electable? May 29, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Uncategorized.Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain
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Yesterday I wrote about Hillary’s recent surge in polling against John McCain. I said this was likely due to Republicans picking up their attacks on Obama as he became the front runner, which drove up the negatives for both Obama and McCain while leaving Hillary untouched. Now this morning the guys at fivethirtyeight have published a study of press release attacks by all three campaigns and both national committees during the last nine months. This chart really couldn’t be more explicit in showing how much the national committees have attacked both McCain and Obama in the last four months while leaving Hillary virtually untouched.
It’s interesting to see how little, at least through press releases, Obama has attacked both Hillary and McCain over the course of the campaign. This is likely due to the fact that he was never really behind electorally and also his calls for a new kind of politics makes it difficult for his campaign to attack blatantly through press releases. Another thing to point out is that Clinton has significantly toned down her attacks against Obama in May and actually attacked McCain more in this month than Obama.
Is Hillary Really More Electable? May 28, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Uncategorized.Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, electoral college, Hillary Clinton
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That’s at least her strongest and most articulated argument at this point. See this story from CNN. If by more electable she means currently polling ahead of John McCain she is certainly right. Most polls have Senator Clinton ahead in the Kerry states as well as Florida, Ohio and Arkansas. Fivethirtyeight.com reflects this by producing a Clinton electoral victory about 62 percent of the time. The Clinton campaign has also issued a graphical memo that exhibits her advantage.
While this map takes some liberties with Kentucky and maybe New Hampshire I think it’s generally pretty accurate. But I should also point at that Hillary’s surge in the last month or so is likely due to Republicans picking up their attacks on Obama, which has driven up his negatives. If the situation were reversed it’s likely Obama would be doing better than Hillary against McCain, but at the same time a lot of Obama’s woes have been self-imposed.
Hillary’s Obama/McCain map (after the flip) shows Obama 46 points behind McCain but shows McCain winning in Wisconsin, Michigan and Ohio in all of Which Obama is actually about even or slightly ahead. If Obama were to win two of these three he would surpass 270.
Prime Minister Question Time May 27, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Uncategorized.Tags: English Politics, Margaret Thatcher, Prime Minister Question Time, Tony Blair
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Fresh off my trip to Europe I want to point out one of the most distinct and entertaining differences between parliamentary and presidential democracies. In our system we typically question our president and elected officials through the media but in the UK they don’t mess around when it comes to telling the prime minister what they think. Often the “questioning” can digress to ad hominem and personal attacks American politicians typically wouldn’t think of making.
The rigors of this system also requires a combination of quick thinking and broad issue knowledge not typically found in American presidents. In the modern era I think it’s relatively safe to say that only Bill Clinton would have been particularly successful under this system. I don’t think even his most ardent supporters would argue that President Bush would succeed at prime minister question time and even the “great communicator” Ronald Reagan would probably struggle as well. How earlier presidents like Kennedy, Johnson and Nixon would have performed is debatable.
The first video shows a young Tony Blair Blair taking on John Major over his leadership of the conservative party. The second, after the flip, shows Margaret Thatcher at her best debating the idea of a single European currency.
Blog Maverick: “I Know I Would Make The Same Deal Again.” May 6, 2008
Posted by nedd_turrley in NBA.Tags: Dallas Mavericks, Devin Harris, Jason Kidd, Mark Cuban
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A few days after the Dallas Mavericks were ousted in the first round for two consecutive playoffs in a row, Mark Cuban wrote about the Mavs’ year in review on his blog. His post provides some fascinating insight into the making of the Jason Kidd-deal as well as the difficulty of making trades in the NBA.
The fact that professional sports teams are owned by billionaires clearly shows how money can provide people with a false sense of confidence. What I’m saying is that having a lot of money gives guys like Jerry Jones, Hank Steinbrenner, Al Davis, and Mark Cuban a reason to think that they are experts in whatever sport their respective team plays. Historically, the most championships are won by teams whose owners aren’t in the spotlight. Can anyone name the owner of the San Antonio Spurs? How about the Chicago Bulls of the ’90s? And do you really think the Kraft family has any influence at all on the Patriots’ trades, draft picks, and free agent signings? Although owners like Davis, Cuban, Steinbrenner, and Jones make their teams relevant through their willingness to spend, they often get in the way of those who actually earned their wealth through their knowledge of the game. It’s not coincidence that championship-worthy teams are run by owners who step aside for those who are more qualified to make the most important decisions. Just because Hank Steinbrenner is rich doesn’t mean that he knows more about baseball than Brian Cashman (i.e. Insisting that Joba Chamberlain should be a starter), and just because Mark Cuban earned biillions of dollars by creating complex computer software doesn’t make him an expert at assembling a professional basketball team. (i.e. Failing to re-sign Steve Nash in ‘04 and trading 25 year-old Devin Harris for 35 year-old Jason Kidd).
Jim Gilmore: Truly Fallacious May 1, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Virginia Politics.Tags: 2008 US Senate Elections, Jim Gilmore, Mark Warner, Virginia Politics
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Without getting into a discussion of the car tax and Jim Gilmore’s term as governor lets, just examine the logic of his statement about Warner and taxes. Gilmore essentially says that Warner successfully runs for office by saying he is going to do one thing, but then doing another once he is finally elected. This argument is a hypothetical syllogism represented as if p->q and consequently if ~q -> ~P. So in the second part Gilmore argues if Warner says he’s going to raise taxes, then he is probably going to raise taxes a lot. I guess this would be represented as p->~q or p-> even more p as pertaining to his first argument. Either way I say Jim Gilmore, you sir are an arguer of fallacious things and not fit to be in the United States Senate!
Also, it’s probably arguements like this that have caused Gilmore to be running just about 2000 percent behind Warner in cash on hand.
Ridin’ Dirty At Age Seven May 1, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Random.Tags: Gangster, Grand Theft Auto, Ridin' Dirty
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“And so then I had my friend come in and he smokes with cigarettes.”
I think a whole weekend without video games is still a little stiff for this kid.
