2008 Senate Elections Expected Values April 16, 2008
Posted by justingerman in 2008 Election.Tags: 2008 Elections, expected values, United States Senate
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Having already done an expected values calculation for the 2008 electoral college, it only made since to calculate the expected composition of the Senate following the November election.
To do this I gave each race a value between -1 and 1. A negative value represents the probability that the Democrats lose a particular seat, while a positive value is the probability that they gain the seat. A value of 0 means that the seat is “safe” in that there is a zero probability that it will change parties.
I list the probabilities for each election by the degree of competition that will categorize the race. My four categories are safe, leaning, marginal, and toss-up.
Using this method I got an expected value of 4.2 for the number of seats the Democrats will likely gain. Read on to see how I got this figure and if I think it’s an accurate representation of the election. (more…)
2008 House Elections Overview March 23, 2008
Posted by justingerman in 2008 Election.Tags: 2008 Elections, DCCC, House Of Representatives, NRCC
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Raising Kaine has a great post today outlining what will be the most competitive races this time around in the House of Representatives. They mention 41 vulnerable Republicans (8 highly vulnerable) and 30 vulnerable Democrats (9 highly vulnerable). This election will be distinctly different from 2004 because, while the electoral environment will continue to strongly advantage Democrats, there will be a high number of Democrats who are very much at risk due to the Democrat’s 2006 gains in moderately conservative districts. In 2006 not a single Democratic seat turned red.
Look for Democrats to win nearly all of the highly vulnerable Republican Districts in coronation-like numbers, and to take 50-60 percent of the vulnerable seats. I think it’s very possible to see Christine Jennings win in a rematch and to see Renzi’s former seat go to a Democrat. It would also be great to see that scumbag Don Young go down in Alaska.
Prank-Calling Hillary March 17, 2008
Posted by justingerman in Hillary Clinton.Tags: 2008 Elections, 3:00 am ad, Bill Clinton, Hillary Clinton, Laurinda Calonge
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This video from NLS is just too good to pass up. But it seems that Laurinda might be unaware that it was actually the Republican white house and congress that ran up the deficit over the last 7 years. Didn’t Bill Clinton actually balance the budget a couple times and start paying down the debt?
This ad was also misleading due to the fact that Bill and Hillary were presumably sleeping in the same bed before they were rudely awaken.
