Posted by justingerman in 2008 Election, 2008 Presidential Election.
Tags: Barack Obama, Convention Delegates, Dennis Kucinich, Hillary Clinton, Ohio Primary, Pennsylvania Primary, Ron Paul, Super Tuesday, Texas Primary
Both former presidential candidates Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich easily defeated their respective primary opponents on Tuesday. Paul secured 70% of the vote and Kucinich got 50% with his four opponents splitting the rest. Cleveland Councilman Joe Cimperman had the best showing with 35% of the vote. Last week I predicted Kucinich to win but he got a higher percentage and beat Cimperman by more than I predicted.
Hillary’s wins in Ohio and in the Texas primary will likely continue her campaign indefinitely despite the fact that it is literally impossible for her to win the majority of pledged delegates. Hillary won the primary vote in Texas 51-47%, but for a reason that defies comprehension there is still only 41% reporting for the caucuses over 48 hours after the vote took place. As of now Obama is up 56-44 in the caucuses. If these caucus results hold, Clinton will have picked up 92 delegates in Texas compared to Obama’s 91. My prediction of 52% of delegates for Obama to 48% for Clinton was off due to Clinton’s stronger than expected primary vote in Texas. But still, that ain’t too bad right?
Anyway, Clinton’s “big win” gained her only 12 delegates on Obama’s total. Obama now leads Clinton by 144 pledged delegates and 109 when Super Delegates are included. The overall totals can be found here. Considering the fact that Obama raised $55 million in February and there are rumors that he has 50 Super Delegates about to announce their support in the coming days means that this race is essentially over. Fifty Super Delegates will give Obama the lead in pledged and unpledged delegates and considering the fact that every remaining state except Pennsylvania is very favorable to Obama there is every reason to expect that he gains heavily in pledged delegates. Break down the delegates yourself with this nifty little tool from CNN.
Basically it’s a little unfair to ask Hillary to drop out after Tuesday, but to quote her husband, “This is the biggest fairly tale I’ve ever heard.”
Posted by justingerman in 2008 Election.
Tags: 2008 Congressional Elections, 2008 Presidential Election, Dennis Kucinich, Ohio Primary, Presidential Primaries
The Democratic Presidential Primary isn’t the only excitement going down in Cleveland on March 4th. Dennis J. Kucinich, is facing an intense primary against four Democratic challengers, the most serious of whom, Cleveland Councilman Joe Cimperman, has raised almost $1/2 million. Kucinich received 75% of the vote against a low-profile challenger two years ago, however, the anti-Kucinich vote will be much higher this year, as his opponents have called Kucinich an idealist who cares more about running for President than looking out for his district.
Despite the fact that I disagree with Kucinich on a vast array of issues and I think, in a lot of respects, he has done some less-than-positive things for the Democratic Party, I still hope he wins this primary. I think for the purpose of policy making it’s important to have some idealistic and sometimes fringe representatives around to keep everybody honest. However, to a point Kucinich has overstepped these bounds. But hopefully this close primary will teach him a lesson or two about the importance of party unity in achieving policy goals.
The number of candidates and high turnout that are expected for the presidential primary make this election extremely difficult to predict. However, I think that the Democrats in Cleveland will give Kucinich 38-45% of the vote and Cimperman will be about 5-8% points behind. Kucinich’s wife Elizabeth is always worth a bump of a few points in the polls.
Kucinich and Elizabeth during the presidential primary campaign.
Kucinich as the “Boy Mayor” of Cleveland at the age of 31. Elizabeth was 1 year old when this photo was taken.
