2008 House Elections Overview March 23, 2008
Posted by blogtransferaccount in 2008 Election.Tags: 2008 Elections, DCCC, House Of Representatives, NRCC
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Raising Kaine has a great post today outlining what will be the most competitive races this time around in the House of Representatives. They mention 41 vulnerable Republicans (8 highly vulnerable) and 30 vulnerable Democrats (9 highly vulnerable). This election will be distinctly different from 2004 because, while the electoral environment will continue to strongly advantage Democrats, there will be a high number of Democrats who are very much at risk due to the Democrat’s 2006 gains in moderately conservative districts. In 2006 not a single Democratic seat turned red.
Look for Democrats to win nearly all of the highly vulnerable Republican Districts in coronation-like numbers, and to take 50-60 percent of the vulnerable seats. I think it’s very possible to see Christine Jennings win in a rematch and to see Renzi’s former seat go to a Democrat. It would also be great to see that scumbag Don Young go down in Alaska.
No Man Is Safe! (Or District) March 11, 2008
Posted by blogtransferaccount in 2008 Election, US Congress.Tags: 2008 House Elections, House Of Representatives
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In a story that didn’t receive a whole lot of attention outside the political circles, Democratic Bill Foster defeated Jim Oberweis 52-47 in a special election to fill the recently vacated seat of former Republican Speaker Dennis Hastert. Besides a two-year stint after Watergate, Hastert’s former Illinois district has been in Republican hands consistently since the 1930s. Bush also won the district by double digits in 2000 and 2004.
Both wealthy businessmen, Foster and Oberweis spent several $million of their own money but the RNC also pured $1.2 million into the race with very poor results. Oberweis wants a rematch in November, but apparently this guy has a really “abrasive personality,” so the RNC might be looking for a stronger candidate, especially since they wasted so much money on him this time around.
Initially I had expected Democrats to pick up maybe 7-14 seats in the House in 2008 but with results like this there is no reason to expect even better results than in 2006, especially if they get a bump from the Democratic presidential candidate. With the house now standing at 232 Democrats to 198 Republicans I don’t think it’s too outrageous to assume as much as a 33-seat pickup that would give Democrats a 100 seat advantage in the 111th Congress.
