John McCain Needs A VP Now June 24, 2008
Posted by blogtransferaccount in Uncategorized.Tags: Barack Obama, Charlie Crist, Electoral Map, John McCain, Kay Baily-Hutchinson
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After a two month break iapprovedthismessage is back for some more exciting political and social commentary, and it couldn’t be at a more ground-breaking time politically. Right now we’re looking at an electoral map that John Kerry couldn’t have imagined four years ago. Here is fivethirtyeight’s current projection.
With Obama seriously contesting in states like North Carolina and potentially winning in places like Indiana, Missouri and Virginia it’s getting to be panic time for the McCain campaign. McCain needs to make a splash somehow to counteract the Obama momentum that he continues to carry from the end of the primary campaign. I think the best way to do this is to pick a VP now and get him (or her) out on the campaign trail as quickly as possible.
I say her because I know there is a school of thought that thinks McCain would benefit significantly from picking a woman. The problem is, there aren’t a whole lot of particularly viable candidates, outside of Condi Rice (who has said she wouldn’t do it), that McCain could pick that wouldn’t cause his selection to look like some kind of gender gimmick. Retiring Texas Senator Kay Baily-Hutchinson could be a possible option but she doesn’t have a whole lot of name-recognition and she has that grandmother-look to her that wouldn’t help McCain either.
I think it seems the obvious pick at this point is Florida Governor Charlie Crist. Crist would, of course, secure Florida’s 27 votes but would also be a defensive pick for McCain. However, he doesn’t have any other particularly good options at this point. But having an energetic and moderate Crist on the campaign trail would be very beneficial to McCain, at least in the short run.
Update: Is Hillary More Electable? May 29, 2008
Posted by blogtransferaccount in Uncategorized.Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain
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Yesterday I wrote about Hillary’s recent surge in polling against John McCain. I said this was likely due to Republicans picking up their attacks on Obama as he became the front runner, which drove up the negatives for both Obama and McCain while leaving Hillary untouched. Now this morning the guys at fivethirtyeight have published a study of press release attacks by all three campaigns and both national committees during the last nine months. This chart really couldn’t be more explicit in showing how much the national committees have attacked both McCain and Obama in the last four months while leaving Hillary virtually untouched.
It’s interesting to see how little, at least through press releases, Obama has attacked both Hillary and McCain over the course of the campaign. This is likely due to the fact that he was never really behind electorally and also his calls for a new kind of politics makes it difficult for his campaign to attack blatantly through press releases. Another thing to point out is that Clinton has significantly toned down her attacks against Obama in May and actually attacked McCain more in this month than Obama.
Barack Obama And Rural America April 14, 2008
Posted by blogtransferaccount in 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain.Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Pennsylvania Primary
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An unnamed, esteemed reader of iapprovedthismessage has asked me to comment on the controversy surrounding Barack Obama’s recent comments about rural Americans being bitter due to their down-and-out economic conditions. Here is the full quote.
“You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them,” Obama said. “And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
Four things come to mind when I read this.
1. Hardly anyone will actually change their vote for Hillary, or John McCain for that matter, after hearing this quote. I think there is actually a large swath of people in these small towns who likely agree with Obama because this is the kind of thing they see everyday. The people who try to make political hay out of this aren’t going to vote for Obama anyway.
2. Obama wrote pretty much this exact thing several times in the Audacity of Hope and he also made statements along these lines in the debates at well without any kind of backlash. Additionally, Obama has been significantly more critical of the self-destructive nature of black-urban communities and blacks have been voting for Obama to about the tune of about 90 percent.
3. I think the timing of this statement, two weeks before a primary that could propel him to the White House, shows that Obama is probably the most authentic and wise politician since King Solomon told them to cut that baby in half. Anyone that doesn’t think this statement shows the legitimate nature of Obama as a different type of candidate is probably not paying attention. Sure you can disagree with him on policy but it’s hard to disagree with the fact that Obama is rewriting the rules of presidential campaigning.
4. Let’s just contrast Obama’s statement with Hillary hammerin’ back a couple shots like she just got off the line at the steel plant. What? That whiskey is Canadian!? SHAME ON YOU HILLARY!
Tim Russert Is A Pretty Smart Guy April 9, 2008
Posted by blogtransferaccount in 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain.Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, electoral college, Electoral Map, Hillary Clinton, John McCain
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I say that because his 2008 electoral map prediction for an Obama-McCain race looks very similar to the state-by-state probabilities that I made in my post predicting the electoral college expected values. This map can be found on theelectoralmap.com.
The only real differences between this map and my probabilities are the states of Arkansas, South Carolina and Michigan. It’s more or less imperative that Obama wins Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan to win the election. I think Russert is right in assuming that Michigan will be the closest of the three, but I still think it leans to Obama due to the economic circumstances in the state and McCain’s support for freer trade.
For some reason Russert also thinks that Obama stands less of a chance in South Carolina than Georgia or North Carolina. This may be true to a point, but I still have trouble writing it off to McCain at this point.
Geoff pointed out in a comment to my expected values calculation that he thought my probabilities for Arkansas and West Virginia were escessively low and that Obama has at least a marginal chance of winning in each state. However, I stand by my projections and say that Hillary likely would win in both states but Obama really doesn’t stand a chance in either due to the highly white, low income, low education democraphics. Russert seems to agree with me on West Virginia and with Geoff on Arkansas.
Below the fold I added Russert’s Clinton-McCain map just for fun. I think this map shows that Obama’s and Clinton’s expected values would be about the same, but with different strengths in different places. But I’m definately not going to take the time to add up Clinton’s values. (more…)
McCain’s Powerful First Ad March 28, 2008
Posted by blogtransferaccount in 2008 Presidential Election, John McCain.Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, John McCain, TV ads
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As a student of politics I can’t help but get chills watching this ad. Just when you think the Republicans can’t create anything better they come up with something like this. I think this ad, titled “624787″ is the greatest I have every seen. But in fairness it’s true that John McCain is the perfect candidate for the perfect ad.
Amazingly, McCain simultaneously makes a compelling case for the war while also distancing himself from Bush (“John McCain, the American president Americans have been waiting for”). Kerry could have slammed Bush with an ad like this in 2004, but of course, he didn’t.
The two big questions going forward are whether or not the Democratic candidate can convince Americans that the life and money spent on this war are not worth the price and whether or not McCain will have the money to thoroughly get this message on the airwaves and on the ground to be competitive with the Democrats in terms of spending.
Surely a single ad can not win a campaign, but this message is a great starting point around which McCain can mold the rest of his campaign.
The Electoral Map March 24, 2008
Posted by blogtransferaccount in 2008 Presidential Election.Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, the electoral map
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Any nerds out there looking for some really awesome, graphical analysis of American politics will love this site theelectoralmap.com. This map is just a little taste of what this site has to offer. The numbers for the graphic below are derived from a survey USA poll and show how the electoral map in an Obama candidacy would vary significantly from previous democratic presidential election strategies. To get a better perspective on the geographic strengths and weaknesses of Obama and Clinton check out the entire post from the Electoral Map.
Republicans Probably Need To Refine Their Message A Bit March 6, 2008
Posted by blogtransferaccount in 2008 Presidential Election, John McCain, The Republican Party.Tags: Bob Dole, CNN, John McCain, Larry King Live
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Said Bob Dole on Larry King last night, “[McCain]does have a… I guess you could say temper. But I always sort of rationalized that because the poor guy had been locked up in a tiny cell for six years.” But McCain, he said, “can control it. It’s not a problem anymore.”
Barack Obama: Bittersweet Symphony March 6, 2008
Posted by blogtransferaccount in 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Why You are wrong about Obama.Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Congressional Quarterly, George W. Bush, Joe Biden, John McCain, September 11
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*This is the second in a series of indeterminate length, in which I will address the often-made arguments against Barack Obama and his candidacy for president.
One argument against Barack Obama that is probably more often thought than actually said is that he wouldn’t have developed the notoriety that is enabling him to run for president if he were not black. To these people I say congratulations, you’re right, great analysis! If Obama did not have the unique racial quality that makes him 1 out of 100 in the United States Senate he would not have the recognition nor the appeal to run for president. When Joe Biden said that Obama would be the first black to run for president who is “clean and articulate,” his words were carelessly chosen but the basic form of his statement is not really open to critique. It is true that Obama is the first black candidate who has strong appeal across racial, cultural and class lines; a quality that makes him unique in the eyes of lots of voters. Without this quality Obama’s rhetoric about unity would likely fall flat.
So I’ll admit that if he were not black, Obama would not be a candidate for president right now. I’ll also say that’s not a bad thing.
How’s McCain’s Health? March 4, 2008
Posted by blogtransferaccount in 2008 Presidential Election, John McCain.Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, John McCain, Raising Kaine
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This is genuinely strange post from Raising Kaine that assumes the proverbial “smoke-filled room,” elected McC
ain, which really is a paranoid line of thought considering the age in which we live and the way this election has progressed. However, it does raise the important, yet controversial, issue of McCain’s health.
I don’t want it to look like I’m bringing this up for political purposes, but McCain really doesn’t look fit for the presidency. Yeah, I know his mom is like 110 and still going strong, but it seems like McCain has gotten a lot more tired as the campaign has gone along. He just looks and talks like he’s worn out and what’s with the swelling on the left side of his jaw/face? I understand this is an awkward topic for the media to bring up but I think it will probably stimulate some discussion in the coming months. Luckily however, this campaign will likely be as rigorous or probably more so than actually serving as president. If McCain can handle the campaign he can probably handle the presidency. But at the same time it’s important to remember that he’s 72 years old and isn’t going to get any younger.
