Posted by blogtransferaccount in 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, The Democratic Party.
Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Pennsylvania Primary
So the big day is upon us and I think the only reaction I have is thank God. I am so tired of this primary campaign that I have kind of blocked out a lot of it the last couple weeks. I can’t really fault the campaigns or even the media for the trivial nature of the coverage, because there has never been a campaign like this in American history. Never before has a single campaign between two candidates been the main news story for literally months at a time.
For one, a primary between two candidates has never lasted this long. Additionally, there has never been a six week period without any voting like the one we just experienced. Put these two factors together and what results is a trivia based campaign simply because the candidates haven’t had anything new to say for months. Thus, the media can’t keep reporting on the same things so they emphasize the charge-counter charge nature of the campaigns.
Some might ask, “isn’t this essentially the same thing as a general presidential election?” I would say no simply because, in a presidential, there are two candidates that are the main story at the national level, but there are also hundreds of races across the country at all levels of government that also attract people’s attention. Also, the differences between a Democrat and a Republican are a lot more stark in policy terms than between Clinton and Obama. Not to mention a general election really only last 3 months, which forces the media to discuss policy a lot more than in the 15 month primary campaign that we’re seeing now.
While the good news is that the worst is likely over with the conclusion of the Pennsylvania Primary tomorrow, there looks to be little possibility that Obama will finish close enough to Hillary to force her out of the race. (more…)
Posted by blogtransferaccount in 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain.
Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain, Pennsylvania Primary
An unnamed, esteemed reader of iapprovedthismessage has asked me to comment on the controversy surrounding Barack Obama’s recent comments about rural Americans being bitter due to their down-and-out economic conditions. Here is the full quote.
“You go into some of these small towns in Pennsylvania, and like a lot of small towns in the Midwest, the jobs have been gone now for 25 years and nothing’s replaced them,” Obama said. “And they fell through the Clinton Administration, and the Bush Administration, and each successive administration has said that somehow these communities are gonna regenerate and they have not. And it’s not surprising then they get bitter, they cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who aren’t like them or anti-immigrant sentiment or anti-trade sentiment as a way to explain their frustrations.”
Four things come to mind when I read this.
1. Hardly anyone will actually change their vote for Hillary, or John McCain for that matter, after hearing this quote. I think there is actually a large swath of people in these small towns who likely agree with Obama because this is the kind of thing they see everyday. The people who try to make political hay out of this aren’t going to vote for Obama anyway.
2. Obama wrote pretty much this exact thing several times in the Audacity of Hope and he also made statements along these lines in the debates at well without any kind of backlash. Additionally, Obama has been significantly more critical of the self-destructive nature of black-urban communities and blacks have been voting for Obama to about the tune of about 90 percent.
3. I think the timing of this statement, two weeks before a primary that could propel him to the White House, shows that Obama is probably the most authentic and wise politician since King Solomon told them to cut that baby in half. Anyone that doesn’t think this statement shows the legitimate nature of Obama as a different type of candidate is probably not paying attention. Sure you can disagree with him on policy but it’s hard to disagree with the fact that Obama is rewriting the rules of presidential campaigning.
4. Let’s just contrast Obama’s statement with Hillary hammerin’ back a couple shots like she just got off the line at the steel plant. What? That whiskey is Canadian!? SHAME ON YOU HILLARY!
Posted by blogtransferaccount in 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, The Democratic Party.
Tags: Barack Obama, Electoral Geography, Hillary Clinton, Pennsylvania Primary, Presidential Primaries
Obviously the green here is Obama and the blue is Hillary. The greenest and bluest counties were carried by their respective candidate with 60% of the vote. Clearly this map shows that Appalachia has not been and will continue to not be particularly friendly to Obama.
There is absolutely no reason to think that Obama will get anything but straight pwned in West Virginia and Kentucky in a worse fashion than Tennessee. Keep in mind there is no Memphis in either state that will give Obama a bump. Indiana is interesting because the conventional knowledge is that Obama will benefit from media “spill-over” from Chicago and the rest of Illinois that will help him here. But demographically, Indiana is a lot more like Ohio than Illinois and I think it’s likely that the spill-over will be overrated and, if anything, confined to the northern suburbs of Chicago. However, Obama will have a pretty good cushion in Indianapolis that will keep him from getting dominated like he will in Appalachia. (more…)
Posted by blogtransferaccount in 2008 Election, 2008 Presidential Election.
Tags: Barack Obama, Convention Delegates, Dennis Kucinich, Hillary Clinton, Ohio Primary, Pennsylvania Primary, Ron Paul, Super Tuesday, Texas Primary
Both former presidential candidates Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich easily defeated their respective primary opponents on Tuesday. Paul secured 70% of the vote and Kucinich got 50% with his four opponents splitting the rest. Cleveland Councilman Joe Cimperman had the best showing with 35% of the vote. Last week I predicted Kucinich to win but he got a higher percentage and beat Cimperman by more than I predicted.
Hillary’s wins in Ohio and in the Texas primary will likely continue her campaign indefinitely despite the fact that it is literally impossible for her to win the majority of pledged delegates. Hillary won the primary vote in Texas 51-47%, but for a reason that defies comprehension there is still only 41% reporting for the caucuses over 48 hours after the vote took place. As of now Obama is up 56-44 in the caucuses. If these caucus results hold, Clinton will have picked up 92 delegates in Texas compared to Obama’s 91. My prediction of 52% of delegates for Obama to 48% for Clinton was off due to Clinton’s stronger than expected primary vote in Texas. But still, that ain’t too bad right?
Anyway, Clinton’s “big win” gained her only 12 delegates on Obama’s total. Obama now leads Clinton by 144 pledged delegates and 109 when Super Delegates are included. The overall totals can be found here. Considering the fact that Obama raised $55 million in February and there are rumors that he has 50 Super Delegates about to announce their support in the coming days means that this race is essentially over. Fifty Super Delegates will give Obama the lead in pledged and unpledged delegates and considering the fact that every remaining state except Pennsylvania is very favorable to Obama there is every reason to expect that he gains heavily in pledged delegates. Break down the delegates yourself with this nifty little tool from CNN.
Basically it’s a little unfair to ask Hillary to drop out after Tuesday, but to quote her husband, “This is the biggest fairly tale I’ve ever heard.”
Posted by blogtransferaccount in 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton.
Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, Al Gore, Barack Obama, Bill Richardson, Hillary Clinton, John Edwards, John McCain, Ohio Primary, Pennsylvania Primary, Presidential Primaries, Rasmusse, Super Tuesday, Texas Primary
Based on the CNN Exit Polls from Texas and Ohio I think it’s pretty clear that if anything, Barack Obama will likely come out ever so slightly ahead tonight. Hillary will win Ohio by 3-5 points and possibly split 50-50 with Obama in the primary voting in Texas. However, the caucus portion in Texas should put Obama over the top by probably about the same amount of delegates that Hillary will win in Ohio, for the reasons I outlined earlier.
Despite the fact that the Rasmussen tracking poll has Hillary ahead of Obama for the first time since before Super Tuesday, she was ahead more than 10 points in both Texas and Ohio as recently as two weeks ago. Because of this, it’s really difficult to see how she can legitimately go forward from this point with no way of capturing the majority of pledged delegates. It wouldn’t be particularly troublesome for her to continue another week or so but for her to stay in until Pennsylvania on April 22 would really hold back the Democratic ticket. This would be especially true if she keeps running ads like this.
Update: So Clinton vastly exceeded mine and the exit poll’s expectations in Ohio, and it looks like she should finish around 55-57%. Texas will be about even but we won’t know the final results until sometime tomorrow morning. This will almost surely continue the campaign until at least April 22, where the demographics don’t bode particularly well for Obama. Also look for some endorsements to start coming down the pipes for Obama from the likes of Bill Richardson, John Edwards and All Gore; Richardson being the most likely and Gore the least.
You’re going to hear a lot of Obama saying, “John McCain and Hillary Clinton…”
