Obviously the green here is Obama and the blue is Hillary. The greenest and bluest counties were carried by their respective candidate with 60% of the vote. Clearly this map shows that Appalachia has not been and will continue to not be particularly friendly to Obama.
There is absolutely no reason to think that Obama will get anything but straight pwned in West Virginia and Kentucky in a worse fashion than Tennessee. Keep in mind there is no Memphis in either state that will give Obama a bump. Indiana is interesting because the conventional knowledge is that Obama will benefit from media “spill-over” from Chicago and the rest of Illinois that will help him here. But demographically, Indiana is a lot more like Ohio than Illinois and I think it’s likely that the spill-over will be overrated and, if anything, confined to the northern suburbs of Chicago. However, Obama will have a pretty good cushion in Indianapolis that will keep him from getting dominated like he will in Appalachia. (more…)
I’ve done several of these Obama defense articles lately, but I just have to point out this one more argument that I think shows a basic fundamental difference in Hillary and Obama supporters concerning their perspective and vision for the future of the Democratic party.
This blogger, Anonymous Is a Woman, who was formerly an Obama supporter, finds fault in his campaign’s attempt to recruit independents and Republicans to vote for Obama in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania being especially problematic for the Obama campaign because it is a closed primary and Independents and Republicans must change their affiliation to Democrat in order to vote. What she finds particularly egregious is the particular language of the mailer that said, “They can always change back their affiliation after the election.” Though I’ll admit that such a statement is poorly articulated, it doesn’t reflect the sentiment of the campaign nor has any divisive intent.
Based on the CNN Exit Polls from Texas and Ohio I think it’s pretty clear that if anything, Barack Obama will likely come out ever so slightly ahead tonight. Hillary will win Ohio by 3-5 points and possibly split 50-50 with Obama in the primary voting in Texas. However, the caucus portion in Texas should put Obama over the top by probably about the same amount of delegates that Hillary will win in Ohio, for the reasons I outlined earlier.
Despite the fact that the Rasmussen tracking poll has Hillary ahead of Obama for the first time since before Super Tuesday, she was ahead more than 10 points in both Texas and Ohio as recently as two weeks ago. Because of this, it’s really difficult to see how she can legitimately go forward from this point with no way of capturing the majority of pledged delegates. It wouldn’t be particularly troublesome for her to continue another week or so but for her to stay in until Pennsylvania on April 22 would really hold back the Democratic ticket. This would be especially true if she keeps running ads like this.
Update: So Clinton vastly exceeded mine and the exit poll’s expectations in Ohio, and it looks like she should finish around 55-57%. Texas will be about even but we won’t know the final results until sometime tomorrow morning. This will almost surely continue the campaign until at least April 22, where the demographics don’t bode particularly well for Obama. Also look for some endorsements to start coming down the pipes for Obama from the likes of Bill Richardson, John Edwards and All Gore; Richardson being the most likely and Gore the least.
You’re going to hear a lot of Obama saying, “John McCain and Hillary Clinton…”
*This is the first in a series of indeterminate length, in which I will address the often-made arguments against Barack Obama and his candidacy for president.
The first argument is probably the most popular amongst people, particularly Democrats, who are unable to really challenge him on policy. The argument is something along the lines of Obama reading poetry while Hillary is running for office. I say that people make this argument when they can’t attack Obama in another way because, in truth, I don’t think it’s possible to draw a clear distinction between Obama and Clinton on the amount they talk about substantive policy issues. But it will be interesting to see the kid of analysis that is produced after the election is over.
Obama has defended himself against this argument by saying that throughout American history, words have meant great things to millions of people and that he is the prime example of a product of hope. However, I’m going to come at this argument from a different angle.
In the presidential primary process there are lots of different ways that the respective states’ delegates are chosen to the national convention. Some states use caucuses and others primaries. Sometimes the votes are apportioned by the vote in each congressional district and sometimes they are based the proportion of the entire state. Texas’ primary/caucus, however, is just utterly strange and will likely affect the final outcome of the state’s vote.
The National Journal has a great article this week about how the Democratic Party is transforming before our eyes. Gone is the party that nominated John Kerry in favor of a younger, more affluent, more Latino, more female, more evangelical and more liberal party. Though I certainly think that the growth of such groups is unequivocally a positive thing for the Democrats, I worry about the remnants of the New Deal Coalition that for so long has been the heart of the party.
I think this is the reason we see Hillary and Obama bashing NAFTA so much these days, especially in manufacturing centers like Ohio. Despite the fact that they probably realize that the aggregate effects of NAFTA are a positive for the US in the long run, it’s important to comfort those who are afflicted in the short term. However, this is not the right post to be discussing trade policy.
Ultimately what this transition means is that the Democratic Party is becoming more knowledgeable and passionate about politics. Passion has long been a problem for the Democrats, which was typically realized by the fact that high overall turnout in any election was usually a good thing for the Democratic candidate. This is due to the fact that passionate Republicans were always going to vote, but more apathetic Democrats were harder to get to the polls.
I must say that this is undoubtedly the best I have seen Hillary Clinton the entire campaign. By ‘best’ I don’t mean the fact that she is attacking Obama for doing the exact same thing her campaign has done to him time and again. What I do mean is the fact that she is expressing authentic and passionate anger about something she views to be wrong.
Republicans such as George W Bush, Dick Cheney, Alberto Gonzalez, Donald Rumsfeld, anyone in the Republican presidential election, or international figures like Osama Bin Laden, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Kim Jung Ill, the Janjawid or even the Chinese government would have been much better targets than Barack Obama. Directing this same kind of anger toward the actors would have enabled her to wrap up the nomination weeks ago. Of course she couldn’t have done this every day or every week, but to show this kind of aggressive emotion at the most opportune times would have showed that she cared deeply about making things different. Democrats right now don’t want the Stepford Wives candidate, they want someone who is visibly passionate about bringing change. (more…)
The Democratic Presidential Primary isn’t the only excitement going down in Cleveland on March 4th. Dennis J. Kucinich, is facing an intense primary against four Democratic challengers, the most serious of whom, Cleveland Councilman Joe Cimperman, has raised almost $1/2 million. Kucinich received 75% of the vote against a low-profile challenger two years ago, however, the anti-Kucinich vote will be much higher this year, as his opponents have called Kucinich an idealist who cares more about running for President than looking out for his district.
Despite the fact that I disagree with Kucinich on a vast array of issues and I think, in a lot of respects, he has done some less-than-positive things for the Democratic Party, I still hope he wins this primary. I think for the purpose of policy making it’s important to have some idealistic and sometimes fringe representatives around to keep everybody honest. However, to a point Kucinich has overstepped these bounds. But hopefully this close primary will teach him a lesson or two about the importance of party unity in achieving policy goals.
The number of candidates and high turnout that are expected for the presidential primary make this election extremely difficult to predict. However, I think that the Democrats in Cleveland will give Kucinich 38-45% of the vote and Cimperman will be about 5-8% points behind. Kucinich’s wife Elizabeth is always worth a bump of a few points in the polls.
Kucinich and Elizabeth during the presidential primary campaign.
Kucinich as the “Boy Mayor” of Cleveland at the age of 31. Elizabeth was 1 year old when this photo was taken.
If George Allen hadn’t called that guy Macaca he’d be the Republican nominee for President right now. I’m sure of it. Though it wasn’t necessarily the macaca itself that brought Allen down, as much as his campaign’s inability to manage the problem and the fact that he was tainted from that point on. If Allen has run a clean campaign and stayed out of trouble he probably would have won by about 5-12 points, and by even more if Harris Miller had been nominated. The next year, as Republicans searched in vein for the “true conservative” in the race, Allen would have stood out like Cindy Sheehan at a VFW rally. So let’s just examine for a minute what an Allen For President Campaign would have looked like and how it would have influenced the election.
In his Wisconsin victory speech John McCain just said he is now the nominee for the Republican party. He also generally categorized Obama’s idea of change as eloquent but empty and that Obama perpetuates the failed idea of the power of government over the power of the people.
Let me first say that the idea of “the power of the people” is a lot more abstract and fanciful than Obama’s principled call for change. Also, Hillary tried that argument and it’s clearly failing. CNN already called Wisconsin for Obama and he’ll probably win by more than 10. Hillary needs to get out if she loses in Texas or Ohio so Obama can adequately address McCain’s arguments.
March and April are going to be crucial for these candidates to establish their public perceptions before the other side does it for them. If Obama has this opportunity he should be able to deal with McCain’s attacks as easily as he did Hillary’s.
If George Allen hadn’t called that guy Macaca he’d be the Republican nominee for President right now. I’m sure of it. Though it wasn’t necessarily the macaca itself that brought Allen down, as much as his campaign’s inability to manage the problem and the fact that he was tainted from that point on. If Allen has run a clean campaign and stayed out of trouble he probably would have won by about 5-12 points, and by even more if Harris Miller had been nominated. The next year, as Republicans searched in vein for the “true conservative” in the race, Allen would have stood out like Cindy Sheehan at a VFW rally. So let’s just examine for a minute what an Allen For President Campaign would have looked like and how it would have influenced the election.
