If Hillary Loses Indiana She Will Drop Out April 23, 2008
Posted by justingerman in 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, John McCain.Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, 2012 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, Indiana Primary, John McCain, Richard Nixon
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I think it’s pretty clear, at this point, that Hillary is considering dropping out if she doesn’t win Indiana decisively. Despite her strong finish, it looks like Hillary will only pick up 10 delegates in Pennsylvania, which is probably significantly lower than what her campaign considered to be the best possible result. Thus, it is increasingly less-likely that she will have enough Super Delegates to hand her the nomination. Compound this by the fact that there is really only two states remaining, Kentucky and West Virginia, that are sure wins, and the only other states she can win are Indiana, Oregon and maybe Puerto Rico. But I think all three of these lean to Obama.
Hillary will drop out not because she wants to do the right thing for the party or for democracy, but simply because she is resilient, not suicidal.
If Hillary draws this race out even further, and Obama ends up losing to McCain, lots of Democrats will ( I think wrongly) blame Hillary for Obama’s loss, which will end her chance of ever being president. On the other hand, if she graciously accepts defeat and strongly endorses Obama she will very likely be the default nominee against McCain in 2012, if Obama loses. Also consider that McCain will likely be a very vulnurable incumbent in 2012 if he wins in ‘08.
I would actually say that right now, Hillary has a significantly better chance of being elected in 2012 than 2008. Think of Richard Nixon in 1960 refusing to challenge the general election results despite feeling that he was cheated out of the electoral votes in both Illinois and Texas.
Was This Barack Obama’s Checkers Moment? March 19, 2008
Posted by justingerman in 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama.Tags: 2008 Presidential Election, Barack Obama, Richard Nixon
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No, unlike Richard Nixon, Obama did not thrust the country into a new era of campaigning by reducing his pastors controversial sermons to a cute furry animal someone gave to his daughter; as Nixon did in his famous Checker’s Speech. Obama’s speech was too long and lacked the necessary sound bites or gripping storyline to attract a wide viewership or garner the necessary replays on the networks to make his message stick in voter’s minds. It likely won’t have any immediate positive impact on the voters of Pennsylvania or elsewhere and it might even cause more trouble by keeping the story about Jeremiah Wright in the news for a while longer. That being said, this speech was incredibly brilliant.
